State Rep. Randy Fine – Covid Projections –
Now, yesterday I had to run to the store since I hadn't been out in 3 weeks. To my disgust, both Bayside Lakes Publix and Walmart, only 30% had masks and hardly anyone followed social distancing. We had people crowding us to get things. I don't understand… just because it's not our time for a peak means nothing. If people don't listen now we will be the next outbreak. C'mon people, protect us!
Direct from his FB:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1311179259052626&id=241576362679593
For those interested in the COVID-19 models, but want a Brevard County-specific option, here is the updated model that I shared a few days ago. I'd note that models are exactly that — just predictions based on formulas and assumptions — they don't come down from on high. But I do think it interesting to consider.
Highlights:
1) It predicts that with three months of stay-at-home orders, strictly complied with, we never remotely tax our medical system, that only 5% of the county gets infected, and the death rate is under 1000 (that is their lowest model outcome).
2) It predicts that with three months of stay-at-home orders, but lax compliance, our hospitals would be overwhelmed on June 17th, 42% would be infected, and Brevard deaths would total 2,000.
3) It predicts that with a return to full mobility, without restriction, we would see a greater than 70% infection rate, medical system overload on May 4th, and ultimately 6,000 deaths.
If you find this kind of analysis reasonable, it seems that the right path forward is to find a middle ground between outcomes 1 and 2. Life would not return to normal for a while, but more economic activity could be handled by the medical system as we slowly build herd immunity and wait for better therapeutics and/or a vaccine.
Originally posted on Facebook on April 12, 2020.
